Initial claims inched up last week as the impact of the United Auto Workers strike remained muted.
New filings increased by 2,000 to 207,000 for the week ending Sept. 30, lower than the median forecasts of 210,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.
That continued to suggest a tight labor market where layoffs have stayed below or on-par with the pre-pandemic level for five straight weeks.
After exceeding 250,000—which is our recession threshold—over the summer, initial claims are now more in line with a soft landing. Our 13-week moving average shows a continuing downtrend since August.
The impact of the strike has been muted since September. There was a spike of about 2,500 new claims in Ohio and Michigan, states with two of the three plants that were the first to be affected by the strike, much lower than expected. New claims in Missouri, which has the third plant, were almost unchanged in the same period.
The takeaway
The recent strong jobless claims data is one reason that we expect another robust jobs report on Friday. The market consensus is pointing to an increase of 170,000 payroll jobs for September. We think there is room for some upside surprises given the recent strength of the labor market data, as well as spending data.
Read more of RSM’s insights on the economy and the middle market.
