US Mortgage

Mat Ishbia on why the mortgage market is set to bounce back

Bolstered originations will emerge in 2024

On a more welcome front related to increases, Ishbia described a landscape of growing originations in 2024.

“We’ve talked about the Federal Reserve announcing it won’t be increasing rates, that’s one thing. But I said even a couple of months ago that we expect – the market expects – purchase to be up regardless of if rates went down. And now with rates going down, purchase is going to be up even more.”

How much more? “We thought 10%,” Ishbia said. “But now we’ll say it can be up to 18%, 20%, 25% purchase because people are going to sell their houses, people are going to be moving. People who are on the fence are going to jump off the fence.”

With a bolstered purchase market, Ishbia noted, opportunities to refinance will emerge as well. “Then, of course, refis are coming back. If you keep doing the same amount of purchases, refis are going to be there as well.”

Essentially, Ishbia inferred, happy days are here again: “We went through two tough years,” he said. “2022 and 2023 were tough years for the industry, and 2024 is going to come back hopefully strong and positive. A lot of chief economists are saying we’re going to be in the low 6s, high 5s. This is going to happen. Are you prepared for it? Originations are going up in 2024. Get ready, be prepared and be ready to dominate.”

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